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Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do They Matter?

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  • Alfredo Pistelli
  • Jorge Selaive
  • Rodrigo Valdés

Abstract

Large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities, along with increasing relevance of valuation effects—capital gains or losses—have characterized global financial integration. In this paper, we assess empirically the implications of stocks, flows and valuation adjustments in external crises (current-account reversals, sudden stops and currency crises), sovereign credit ratings and the longrun real exchange rates (RER), in both industrial and developing economies. We find support for the view that foreign assets and liabilities are rather distinctive external holdings with different implications in the occurrence of external crisis. Valuation adjustments have an impact on crises, although quantitatively not very large. Portfolio liabilities (particularly equity) increase the probability of current-account reversals and currency crises, while the likelihood of sudden stops increases with the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) assets. In the case of sovereign credit ratings, we find a noteworthy effect of the stock and flows of FDI liabilities on improving sovereign ratings. Finally, as for the RER, gross assets and liabilities appear equally important, but components of external holdings have considerably different effects. While the cumulative current account is associated with real depreciation, the valuation effect is strongly linked with real currency appreciations in developing economies.

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  • Alfredo Pistelli & Jorge Selaive & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do They Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 443, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:443
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    1. Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2011. "External imbalance, valuation adjustments and real Exchange rate: evidence of predictability in an emerging economy," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(1), pages 107-125, Junio.
    2. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 865, OECD Publishing.
    3. Uroš Herman & Tobias Krahnke, 2022. "Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/038, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
    5. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    6. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
    7. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2018. "Portfolio Composition and Valuation Effects in Emerging Market Economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 307-330, July.
    8. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2012. "Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 655, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fiscal Policy from a Cross-Country Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 4, pages 93-116, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Le, Dieu Thanh & Park, Hail, 2020. "Valuation effects of capital inflows: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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