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A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

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  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Flávio Vieira

Abstract

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3061.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3061

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Keywords: long-run economic growth; real exchange rate misalignment; panel data analysis and System GMM;

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References

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  1. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 12117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
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  4. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2008. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-07, CEPII research center.
  6. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  8. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  9. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment And Growth: Old And New Econometric Evidence," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 93, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  13. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
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  16. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  17. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  18. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
  19. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  20. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  21. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
  22. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  24. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Carl Grekou, 2014. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-4, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Neményi, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2012. "Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása
    [Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 569-684.
  4. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
  5. Martín Rapetti, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  6. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti-herding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 974-984, November.
  7. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Marcel Schröder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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