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The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries

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  • Block, Steven A.
  • Vaaler, Paul M.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 917-946

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:23:y:2004:i:6:p:917-946

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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References

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  1. Guillermo LarraĆ­n & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
  2. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Sovereign risk assessment and agency credit ratings," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 247-256.
  3. Alesina, Alberto & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 663-88, October.
  4. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1994. "The Political Economy of Inflation and Stabilization in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 235-66, January.
  7. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
  8. Beck, Thorsten & Clarke, George & Groff, Alberto & Keefer, Philip & Walsh, Patrick, 2000. "New tools and new tests in comparative political economy - the database of political institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2283, The World Bank.
  9. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
  11. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  12. Min Shi & Jakob Svensson, 2003. "Political Budget Cycles: A Review of Recent Developments," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 67-76.
  13. Carlsen, Fredrik, 1999. "Inflation and Elections: Theory and Evidence for Six OECD Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 120-35, January.
  14. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 155-70.
  15. Michael W. Klein, 1993. "Timing is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  17. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. " Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-30, January.
  18. Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
  19. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  20. Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, January.
  21. Bachman, Daniel, 1992. "The effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias: the case of elections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 208-219, April.
  22. Gerry McNamara & Paul M Vaaler, 2000. "The Influence of Competitive Positioning and Rivalry on Emerging Market Risk Assessment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 337-347, June.
  23. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1989. "An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 426-34, August.
  25. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Fiscal policy cycles and the exchange rate regime in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 569-580, September.
  26. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Political Models of the Business Cycle Should Be Revived," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(3), pages 442-65, July.
  27. Lamy, Robert E. & Thompson, G. Rodney, 1988. "Risk premia and the pricing of primary issue bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 585-601, December.
  28. Khemani, Stuti, 2004. "Political cycles in a developing economy: effect of elections in the Indian States," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 125-154, February.
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