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Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?

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  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Kubota, Megumi

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to characterize the determinants of sudden stops caused by domestic vis-a-vis foreign residents. Are the decisions of domestic investors to invest abroad or of foreign investors to cut off funds from the domestic economy governed by the same set of determinants? Given the distribution of different types of sudden stop episodes over time and its different macroeconomic consequences, the authors argue that the determinants may not be alike. Using an effective sample of 82 countries with annual information over the period 1970-2007, the analysis finds that global investors are less likely to stop bringing their capital when their economy is growing and the world interest rate is lower. Domestic agents are more willing to invest abroad if the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy is poor (high inflation), the financial system is weak, and there are high external savings (current account surpluses). Increasing financial openness makes the domestic country more vulnerable to sudden stops caused by either local or global investors. Finally, countries with higher shares of foreign direct investment are less prone to inflow-driven sudden stops, whereas the opposite holds for outflow-driven sudden stops.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5569.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5569

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Keywords: Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Access to Finance;

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Cited by:
  1. Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Economics Working Papers 1227, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2012.
  2. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
  3. Roland Döhrn & Philipp an de Meulen & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein & Tobias Kitlinksi & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Wieder stärkere Expansion in den Industrieländern," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 36, 09.
  4. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2012. "Gross inflows gone wild : gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6270, The World Bank.
  5. Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Uncertainty and Episodes of Extreme Capital Flows in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 0461, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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