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Country fund discounts and the Mexican crisis of December 1994: did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?

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Author Info
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Sergio L. Schmukler

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Abstract

It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the "front-runners" in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the "divergent expectations" hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican country fund Net Asset Values (driven mainly by Mexican investors) dropped faster than their prices (driven mainly by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 563.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:563

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Related research
Keywords: Mexico ; Investments ; Financial crises - Mexico;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael P. Dooley & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?," NBER Working Papers 4792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," IMF Working Papers 94/159, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler & Robert Brandon Kahn, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler., 1997. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-087, University of California at Berkeley.
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  10. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Rafael La Porta & Thierry A. Wizman, 1993. "What moves the discount on country equity funds?," Research Paper 9324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  11. Charles Frederick Kramer & T. Todd Smith, 1995. "Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts: Renewing the Puzzle of the Pricing of Closed-End Mutual Funds," IMF Working Papers 95/68, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Claessens, S. & Gooptu, S., 1993. "Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 228, World Bank.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio David, 2005. "Do controls on capital inflows insulate domestic variables against external shocks?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David, Antonio C., 2007. "Controls on capital inflows and external shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4176, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sakho, Yaye Seynabou, 2006. "Contagion and firms'internationalization in Latin America : evidence from Mexico, Brazil, and Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4076, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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