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Sequencing of reforms, financial globalization, and macroeconomic vulnerability

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  • Edwards, Sebastian
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    Abstract

    I use a large cross country data set and panel probit analysis to investigate the way in which the interaction between trade and financial openness affect the probability of external crises. This analysis is related to debate on the adequate sequencing of reform. I also investigate the role played by current account and fiscal imbalances, contagion, international reserves holdings, and the exchange rate regime as possible determinants of external crises. The results indicate that relaxing capital controls increases the likelihood of a country experiencing a sudden stop. Moreover, the results suggest that "financial liberalization first" strategies increase the degree of vulnerability to external crises. This is particularly the case if this strategy is pursued with pegged exchange rates and if it results in large current account imbalances. J. Japanese Int. Economies 23 (2) (2009) 131-148.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 131-148

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:131-148

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

    Related research

    Keywords: Financial openness Capital mobility Contagion External imbalances Current account deficits Sudden stops Crises Sequencing of reform;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," International Finance Discussion Papers 708, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    3. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis-Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1978. "The Estimation of a Simultaneous Equation Generalized Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1193-1205, September.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Research Department Publications 4544, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, 01.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Natalia T. Tamirisa & R. B. Johnston, 1998. "Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?," IMF Working Papers 98/181, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 973-987, December.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective," NBER Working Papers 13019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 19-51, January.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March.
    19. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    20. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and Sequencing of Reforms: Competing Views and the Role of Credibility," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 337-62.
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    Cited by:
    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Chang, Chia-Ying, 2013. "Capital controls, capital flows, and banking crises," Working Paper Series 2979, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.

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