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Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Sula, Ozan

Abstract

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 383.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:383

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Keywords: Capital flows; Sudden stops; Surges in capital flows; Emerging Markets; private loans; portfolio flows; foreign direct investment;

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References

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
  2. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.
  3. Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Ayachi Feith & Bhar Youssef, 2012. "Intolerable Surges, Exchange Rate Regimes and Sudden Stops of Capital Inflows," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  5. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
  6. Vogel, Ursula & Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "Foreign banks and financial stability in emerging markets: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 149, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  7. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
  8. Burger, Martijn J. & Ianchovichina, Elena I., 2014. "Surges and stops in FDI flows to developing countries : does the mode of entry make a difference ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6771, The World Bank.

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