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Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Sula, Ozan

Abstract

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 383.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:383

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Keywords: Capital flows; Sudden stops; Surges in capital flows; Emerging Markets; private loans; portfolio flows; foreign direct investment;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
  2. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
  3. Vogel, Ursula & Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "Foreign banks and financial stability in emerging markets: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 149, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  4. Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
  6. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
  7. Burger, Martijn J. & Ianchovichina, Elena I., 2014. "Surges and stops in FDI flows to developing countries : does the mode of entry make a difference ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6771, The World Bank.

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