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Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts

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Author Info
Kevin Cowan
Jose De Gregorio
Alejandro Micco
Christopher Neilson

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Abstract

The recent literature on sudden stops is based on the fact that many emerging market economies experience recurrent and sharp capital account reversals. In this paper we argue, as some recent research has started to emphasize, that more information can be obtained by looking at gross rather than net flows. Economies may be curtailed from international financial markets, resulting in a sudden stop of inflows, but others may be experiencing portfolio shifts that cause sudden start of capital outflows. By looking at gross flows, and comparing emerging markets (EMEs) with developed economies (DEs) we indeed show that there is a variety of experiences that cannot be lumped together. In particular, sudden stop of inflows are as common in DEs as in EMEs, but a key difference is that in the former outflows and inflows are negatively correlated, which dampen the reversal of net flows. We present a model of financial diversification to interpret these results which is consistent with most evidence we report here. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 423.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:423

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ricardo J Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons from Australia and Chile," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-03, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 299, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Aguiar & Guita Gopinath, 2007. "The Role of Interest Rates and Productivity Shocks in Emerging Market Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 445, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrei A. Levchenko & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect from Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jorge Desormeaux & Karol Fernández & Pablo García, 2008. "Financial Implications of Capital Outflows in Chile: 1998-2008," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 23, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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