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Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Ozan Sula

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Abstract

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-008-9103-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 589-605

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:589-605

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Capital flows; Sudden stops; Surges in capital flows; Private loans; Portfolio flows; Foreign direct investment; F32; F41;

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References

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  1. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt88m6g98w, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
  2. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
  3. Ayachi Feith & Bhar Youssef, 2012. "Intolerable Surges, Exchange Rate Regimes and Sudden Stops of Capital Inflows," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  4. Burger, Martijn J. & Ianchovichina, Elena I., 2014. "Surges and stops in FDI flows to developing countries : does the mode of entry make a difference ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6771, The World Bank.
  5. Vogel, Ursula & Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "Foreign banks and financial stability in emerging markets: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 149, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  6. Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
  8. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.

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