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Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

In this paper I use a broad multi-country data set to analyze the relationship between restrictions to capital mobility and external crises. The analysis focuses on two manifestations of external crises: (a) sudden stops of capital inflows; and (b) current account reversals. I deal with two important policy-related issues: First, does the extent of capital mobility affect countries' degree of vulnerability to external crises; and second, does the extent of capital mobility determine the depth of external crises -- as measured by the decline in growth -- once the crises occur? Overall, my results cast some doubts on the assertion that increased capital mobility has caused heightened macroeconomic vulnerabilities. I find no systematic evidence suggesting that countries with higher capital mobility tend to have a higher incidence of crises, or tend to face a higher probability of having a crisis, than countries with lower mobility. My results do suggest, however, that once a crisis occurs, countries with higher capital mobility may face a higher cost, in terms of growth decline.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11170.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11170

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 1997. "Capital Mobility and Exchange Market Intervention in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kaplan, Ethan & Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Michael Klein & Giovanni Olivei, 1999. "Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth," Working Papers 99-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
  19. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Joshua Angrist, 1999. "Estimation of Limited-Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice," Working papers 99-31, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  22. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2004. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Montiel, Peter J, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 311-50, September.
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  26. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 4. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Fernando Broner & Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in peril, retrench: testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Malaysia: Was it Different?," NBER Working Papers 8325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Kristin J. Forbes, 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smalles Traded Firms," NBER Working Papers 9777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. R. B. Johnston & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1998. "Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?," IMF Working Papers 98/181, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  36. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  37. Simon Johnson & Todd Mitton, 2001. "Cronyism and Capital Controls: Evidence from Malaysia," NBER Working Papers 8521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Ashoka Mody & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Growing Up With Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 02/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando M. Gonçalves & Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland, 2008. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/294, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2006. "Globalization and Developing Countries - A Shrinking Tax Base?," NBER Working Papers 11933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 14051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Roberto Álvarez, 2007. "Export Transitions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 418, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment - insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 05/198, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Working Papers 12235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Joseph P Joyce & Ilan Noy, 2005. "The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows," Economics Study Area Working Papers 84, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises--An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/258, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, And Interest In Emerging Markets," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2005. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 11640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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