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Two Hundred Years of Contagion

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Kaminsky, Graciela
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

Over the past two hundred years -- some would argue even longer -- financial events, such as the devaluation of a currency or an announcement of default, have been capable of triggering an immediate adverse chain reaction among countries within a region and in some cases across regions. The impact of these shocks on the countries unfortunate enough to be affected usually included sharp declines in equity prices, a spike in the cost of borrowing in international capital markets, and a significant drop in the availability of capital. In more extreme cases, countries have lost access to cross-border capital flows. Significant declines in output have been the norm in these episodes. Yet, it is remarkable that on other occasions similar events have failed to trigger any international reaction, at least on impact. In some instances, financial markets appear to be quite willing to shrug off an event that will obviously have strong trade and real sector repercussions on the crisis country’s neighbors. We explore what leads some crises to be contagious and others not

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13229.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13229

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Keywords: financial contagion crisis history trade banks lending;

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References

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Financial Markets in Times of Stress," NBER Working Papers 8569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  5. Larry Neal & Marc Weidenmier, 2002. "Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Larry Neal, 1998. "The financial crisis of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 53-76.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  9. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
  10. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1999. "Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gonzalo C. Pastor & Tatiana Damjanovic, 2001. "The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 01/169, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  16. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
  2. María Florencia Aráoz & Ana María Cerro & Osvaldo Meloni & Tatiana Soria Genta, 2009. "Empirical Evidence on Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Argentina," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 116-127, August.
  3. Se-Jik Kim, 2004. "Timing of International Bailouts," IMF Working Papers 04/9, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Didier, Tatiana & Mauro, Paolo & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2008. "Vanishing financial contagion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 775-791.
  5. Ramirez, Manuel & Martínez, Constanza, 2009. "International propagation of shocks: an evaluation of contagion effects for some Latin American countries," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005789, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.

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