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The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads

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  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero

    ()

  • Alvaro Ortiz

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically whether global investors´ risk aversion-and its main determinants (U.S. economic growth and the U.S. risk-free rate)-explains developments in Latin American sovereign spreads. We find that global risk aversion is significant and positively related to sovereign spreads in all Latin American countries analyzed. Furthermore, its impact is persistent over time and even increases in most countries. In addition, a rise in the U.S. long-term risk-free rate lowers sovereign spreads in all countries in the short term. However, this optimistic result, given the current juncture in which long-term rates are expected to increase, reverts very rapidly so that sovereign spreads actually rise only some months later.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION in its journal JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008645

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Keywords: global risk aversion; sovereign spreads; Latin America;

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Cited by:
  1. Ercio Muñoz S., 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 100-121, April.
  2. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 423, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Edward W. Sun & Daniel Tenengauzer & Ali Bastani & Omid Rezania, 2011. "Identification of Driving Factors for Emerging Markets Sovereign Spreads," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2584-2592.
  4. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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