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Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts

In: Current Account and External Financing

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Author Info

  • Kevin Cowan

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • José De Gregorio

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Alejandro Micco

    (Ministerio de Hacienda, Gobierno de Chile)

  • Christopher Neilson

    (Yale University)

Abstract

The recent literature on sudden stops is based on the fact that many emerging market economies experience recurrent and sharp capital account reversals. In this paper we argue, as some recent research has started to emphasize, that more information can be obtained by looking at gross rather than net flows. Economies may be curtailed from international financial markets, resulting in a sudden stop of inflows, but others may be experiencing portfolio shifts that cause sudden start of capital outflows. By looking at gross flows, and comparing emerging markets (EMEs) with developed economies (DEs) we indeed show that there is a variety of experiences that cannot be lumped together. In particular, sudden stop of inflows are as common in DEs as in EMEs, but a key difference is that in the former outflows and inflows are negatively correlated, which dampen the reversal of net flows. We present a model of financial diversification to interpret these results which is consistent with most evidence we report here. l II) could be helpful on this task.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Current Account and External Financing, , chapter 5, pages 159-194, 2008.

This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v12c05pp159-194.

Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v12c05pp159-194

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References

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  1. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2006. "The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ijaz Hussain, 2013. "Estimating Firms’ Vulnerability to Short-Term Financing Shocks: The Case of Foreign Exchange Companies in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 147-163, July-Dec.
  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Capital Debt -and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 676, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Jorge Desormeaux & Karol Fernández & Pablo García, 2008. "Financial Implications of Capital Outflows in Chile: 1998-2008," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 23, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
  6. Robert Vermeulen & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Net Foreign Asset (Com)position: Does Financial Development Matter?," DNB Working Papers 340, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," NBER Working Papers 18329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
  9. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
  10. Burger, Martijn J. & Ianchovichina, Elena I., 2014. "Surges and stops in FDI flows to developing countries : does the mode of entry make a difference ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6771, The World Bank.
  11. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
  12. Enrique Alberola & Aitor Erce & José María Serena, 2012. "International reserves and gross capital flows. Dynamics during financial stress," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1211, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Maria Gonzalez, 2012. "Nonfinancial Firms in Latin America: A Source of Vulnerability?," IMF Working Papers 12/279, International Monetary Fund.

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