Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?
Abstract
It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the “front-runners†in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the “divergent expectations†hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican fund Net Asset Values (mainly driven by Mexican investors) dropped first and/or faster than Mexican country fund prices (mainly driven by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.
Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 511-534
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:511-534
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For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
Related research
Keywords: country fund; crisis; emerging markets; equities; expectations; asymmetric; divergent; heterogeneous; Mexico; peso; F30; F34; G15;Other versions of this item:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the Mexican crisis of December 1994: did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 563, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
MPRA Paper
13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Antonio David, 2005. "Do controls on capital inflows insulate domestic variables against external shocks?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010.
"Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002,"
Working Papers Series
211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 926, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- David, Antonio C., 2007. "Controls on capital inflows and external shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4176, The World Bank.
- Sakho, Yaye Seynabou, 2006. "Contagion and firms'internationalization in Latin America : evidence from Mexico, Brazil, and Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4076, The World Bank.
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