Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises

Contents:

Author Info

  • Clara Garcia
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Capital inflows, especially when volatile, denominated in foreign currencies and not properly hedged against exchange rate risks, may pose macroeconomic and financial problems in the recipient economy. In this paper we analyze the mechanisms through which those problems arise; and we assess the policies that national authorities may resort to in order to prevent them, under the assumption that capital inflows are the result of previous stabilization and liberalization packages. Also, we study the use and effectiveness of policy responses to capital inflows in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the years prior to the 1997-98 financial crises. We conclude that policies that reinforce the stabilization and adjustment trends of the 1980s are more likely to be (at least partially) ineffective or even counterproductive, whereas the measures that depart from those trends appear to have a higher potential for effectiveness but face obstacles to implementation.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_51-100/WP81.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst in its series Working Papers with number wp81.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp81

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 418 N Pleasant St, Amherst MA 01002
    Phone: (413) 545-6355
    Fax: (413) 545-2921
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.peri.umass.edu/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Leonardo Hernández & Peter J. Montiel, 2002. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the "hollow middle"?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Mark M. Spiegel, 1995. "Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Should Capital Controls be Banished?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 89-142.
    5. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    6. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    7. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January.
    8. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Risks to Lenders and Borrowers in International Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 6886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
    10. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0045, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1998. "“Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows,”," MPRA Paper 7123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1999. "Lessons From East Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 311-330, May.
    16. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Jang-Yung Lee, 1996. "Implications of a Surge in Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 96/53, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    19. Irwin, Gregor & Vines, David, 1999. "A Krugman-Dooley-Sachs Third Generation Model of the Asian Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-54, March.
    22. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank.
    23. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literatureon Controls Over International Capital Transactions," IMF Working Papers 95/127, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Inci Ötker & R. B. Johnston, 1999. "A Modernized Approach to Managing the Risks in Cross-Border Capital Movements," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/6, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Reinhart, C.M. & Dunaway, S., 1996. "Dealing with Capital Inflows. Are There Any Lessons?," Research Paper 28, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
    28. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1994. "Macroeconomic adjustment to capital inflows : Latin American style versus East Asian style," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1377, The World Bank.
    29. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May.
    30. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "The capital inflows problem: Concepts and issues," MPRA Paper 13902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. M. Brownbridge & C. Kirkpatrick, 2000. "Financial Regulation in Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 1-24.
    32. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    33. Tony Makin, 1999. "The Great East Asian Capital Flow Reversal: Reasons, Responses and Ramifications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 407-419, 05.
    34. Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 517-551, September.
    35. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
    36. Leonardo Hernández & Peter Montiel, 2001. "Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/170, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Alba, Pedro & Bhattacharya, Amar & Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1998. "Volatility and contagion in a financially integrated world : lessons from East Asia's recent experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2008, The World Bank.
    38. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
    39. Garber, Peter M, 1996. "Managing Risks to Financial Markets from Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 183-95, July.
    40. Peter M. Garber, 1998. "Derivatives in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 6623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 8087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. repec:imf:imfpdp:9310 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Kawai, Masahiro & Newfarmer, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Crisis and contagion in East Asia : nine lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2610, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Judy Fogg).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.