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A Krugman-Dooley-Sachs Third Generation Model of the Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Irwin, Gregor
  • Vines, David

Abstract

This paper presents a multiple-equilibrium model of the Asian financial crisis. The economy has Krugman-style over-investment caused by weak financial regulation and exacerbated by government guarantees. Following Dooley, the government only has a limited capacity or willingness to honour such guarantees. The model has a unique long-run equilibrium, with over-investment. But in the short run, in which the capital stock is fixed, it also has multiple equilibria. If lenders regard lending as low-risk, then it is. But if they regard lending as high-risk then the cost of honouring guarantees rises, making the lending high-risk and the risk premium self-justifying. We argue that this model usefully captures the ideas of panic and collapse which have been popularised in Sachs' discussions of the Asian crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Gregor & Vines, David, 1999. "A Krugman-Dooley-Sachs Third Generation Model of the Asian Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey Sachs, 1996. "Alternative approaches to financial crises in emerging markets," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 16(2), pages 40-52.
    2. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    3. Jeffrey Sachs, 1996. "Alternative approaches to financial crises in emerging markets," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 16(2), pages 202-216.
    4. Jeffrey Sachs, 1996. "Alternative approaches to financial crises in emerging markets," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 16(2).
    5. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1999. "Asian Currency and Financial Crises: Lessons from Vulnerability, Crisis and Collapse," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 155-177, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paola Montero Ledezma, 2018. "The Role of Politics in Crisis in Financial Markets," Investigación & Desarrollo 0118, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Nov 2018.
    2. Femminis, Gianluca, 2007. "Currency Attacks With Multiple Equilibria And Imperfect Information: The Role Of Wage-Setters," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 79-112, February.
    3. Ulgen, Faruk, 2010. "Shaky emerging economies in view of the global financial crisis: the Turkish economy after three decades of liberal reforms," MPRA Paper 35467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Femminis, Gianluca & Ruggerone, Luigi, 2001. "'Crony Capitalism', Bail Outs and Bank Runs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Clara Garcia, 2004. "Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises," Working Papers wp81, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    6. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    7. Kenc, Turalay & Ozkan, Aydin & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2005. "Corporate bankruptcies and official bail-outs: A cost-benefit analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 437-453, December.
    8. Pompeo Della Posta, 2002. "Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(219), pages 237-262.
    9. Jenny Corbett & Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 1999. "From Asian Miracle to Asian Crisis: Why Vulnerability, Why Collapse?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.),Capital Flows and the International Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Ante Babić & Ante Žigman, 2001. "Currency Crises: Theoretical and Empirical Overview of the 1990s," Surveys 5, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    12. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    13. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    14. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    15. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian Economic Crisis; Financial Crisis; Multiple Equilibrium; Over-Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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