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Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises

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  • Itay Goldstein
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    Abstract

    The economic literature emphasised the role of strategic complementarities in generating banking crises and currency crises. Motivated by evidence from recent financial crises, we study a model, where strategic complementarities exist, not only within a group of creditors or within a group of currency speculators, but also between the two groups. The additional type of complementarities generates a vicious circle between banking crises and currency crises. This magnifies the correlation between the two crises and destabilises the economy. We show that, due to the vicious circle, a Lender of Last Resort might not be able to prevent bank runs. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 115 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 503 (04)
    Pages: 368-390

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    Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:368-390

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    1. David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner, 2001. "Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1336, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Nancy Marion, 1999. "Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 473-490, November.
    3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "Coordination risk and the price of debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25046, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Miller, V., 1998. "Domestic bank runs and speculative attacks on foreign currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 331-338, April.
    8. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    9. Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, 2001. "Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence," Bank of England working papers 144, Bank of England.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    15. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, 06.
    16. Miller, Victoria, 1996. "Speculative currency attacks with endogenously induced commercial bank crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 383-403, June.
    17. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November.
    18. Miller, Victoria, 1998. "The Double Drain with a Cross-Border Twist: More on the Relationship between Banking and Currency Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 439-43, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Toni Ahnert, 2014. "Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation," Working Papers 14-23, Bank of Canada.
    2. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, transparency, and systemic liquidity risk," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "Characterising equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2620-2637.
    4. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin, 2013. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sumila Tharanga Wanaguru, 2011. "Carry Trades and Financial Crisis: An Analytical Perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2011-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Nakata, Takeshi, 2010. "Interdependent bank runs under a collapsing fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 603-623, December.
    8. Manz, Michael, 2010. "Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 900-910, October.
    9. Bleaney, Michael & Bougheas, Spiros & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2008. "A model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 695-706, September.
    10. Tijmen Daniëls, 2009. "Unique Equilibrium in a Dynamic Model of Speculative Attacks," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 417-439, December.
    11. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
    12. repec:dgr:uvatin:2008090 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sebastjan Strasek & Timotej Jagric & Natasa Spes, 2007. "Emerging Economies Crises: Lessons from the 1990’," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(3), pages 289-304.

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