Firm dynamics, investment and debt portfolio: balance sheet effects of the Mexican crisis of 1994
AbstractWe build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1989 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) an increase in the debt burden, (ii) an increase in exports, and (iii) a large decline in investment. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.
Volume (Year): 75 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec
Other versions of this item:
- Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," Working Papers 0406, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," NBER Working Papers 10523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," 2004 Meeting Papers 462, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
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