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Does devaluation lead to economic recovery or contraction? Theory and policy with reference to Thailand

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Author Info
Graham Bird (Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK)
Ramkishen S. Rajan (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia; Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore)

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Abstract

Most analyses of the East Asian financial crisis have focused on its causes and the links between currency and banking crises. However a related question is what happens in the aftermath of a crisis? What factors determine the path of an economy in the post-devaluation phase? Does it swiftly bounce back, with the crisis being followed by a period of economic recovery, or does it face a period of economic recession if not outright output collapse? An important element in answering these questions is to consider the response to devaluation, since this constitutes an almost invariant component of economic stabilisation. This paper examines these questions analytically as well as by using Thailand as a case study. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1056
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 16 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 141-156
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Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:16:y:2004:i:2:p:141-156

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  4. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. P.R. Agenor & J. Aizenman & A. Hoffmaister, 2000. "The Credit Crunch in East Asia: What can Bank Excess Liquid Assets Tell us?," NBER Working Papers 7951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 1-136. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sajid Anwar & Desh Gupta, 2006. "Financial Restructuring and Economic Growth in Thailand," Global Economic Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 113-127, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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