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Nafta and Mexico Less-than-Steller Performance

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  • Aaron Tornell

    (UCLA and NBER)

  • Frank Westermann

    ((CESifo (Univ. of Munich ifo)))

  • Lorenzo Martinez

    (Banco de Mexico)

Abstract

Mexico, a prominent liberalizer, failed to attain stellar gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 1990s, and since 2001 its GDP and exports have stagnated. In this paper we argue that the lack of spectacular growth in Mexico cannot be blamed on either the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or the other reforms that were implemented, but on the lack of further judicial and structural reform after 1995. In fact, the benefits of liberalization can be seen in the extraordinary growth of exports and foreign domestic investment (FDI). The key to the Mexican puzzle lies in Mexico's response to crisis: a deterioration in contract enforceability and an increase in nonperforming loans. As a result, the credit crunch in Mexico has been far deeper and far more protracted than in the typical developing country. The credit crunch has hit the nontradables sector especially hard and has generated bottlenecks, which have blocked growth in the tradables sector and have contributed to the recent fall in exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UCLA Department of Economics in its series UCLA Economics Working Papers with number 833.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:833

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References

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  1. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 960, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  3. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
  4. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
  5. Markusen, James R., 2002. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MPRA Paper 8380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  7. Aaron Tornell & Gerardo Esquivel, 1995. "The Political Economy of Mexico's Entry to NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 5322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nora Lustig, 2001. "Life Is Not Easy: Mexico's Quest for Stability and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 85-106, Winter.
  9. Assaf Razin & Ashoka Mody & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "The Role of Information in Driving FDI Flows," IMF Working Papers 03/148, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2003. "Export versus FDI," NBER Working Papers 9439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," Working Papers, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM 0406, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  2. Robertson, Raymond, 2004. "Defining North American Economic Integration," North American Agrifood Integration: Situation and Perspectives, May 2004, Cancun, Mexico, Farm Foundation 16732, Farm Foundation.
  3. Octavio Escobar, 2011. "The location pattern of FDI in Mexico after NAFTA," ERSA conference papers ersa10p804, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Gordon H. Hanson, 2010. "Why Isn't Mexico Rich?," NBER Working Papers 16470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kaplan, David S. & Gonzalez, Gabriel Martinez & Robertson, Raymond, 2007. "Mexican employment dynamics : evidence from matched firm-worker data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4433, The World Bank.
  6. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Ibarrarán, 2006. "Firm Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence from Mexico’s Manufacturing Sector," Documentos de Trabajo, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. 312, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  7. George M. von Furstenberg, 2005. "Mexico versus Canada: Stability Benefits from Making Common Currency with USD?," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 10(2), pages 15-37, Summer.
  8. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu & Chamon, Marcos, 2011. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," MPRA Paper 28532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2011. "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1265-1279.
  10. Stephanou, Constantinos & Munoz, Emanuel Salinas, 2007. "Financing of the private sector in Mexico, 2000-05 : evolution, composition, and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4264, The World Bank.
  11. Robertson, Raymond, 2004. "Defining North American Economic Integration," 2004 NAAMIC Workshop I: North American Agrifood Market Integration: Current Situtation and Perspectives, North American Agrifood Market Integration Consortium (NAAMIC) 163856, North American Agrifood Market Integration Consortium (NAAMIC).
  12. Escobar Gamboa, Octavio Romano, 2009. "IDE entrants, exportations et productivité manufacturière : les différentes performances des régions mexicaines," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/3850 edited by Guillochon, Bernard, October.
  13. Patrick Artus, 2006. "Intégration commerciale avec des pays émergents ayant des ressources importantes en main-d'œuvre qualifiée. Quels effets pour les pays européens ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 673-704.
  14. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Marcos Chamon, 2008. "The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation," IMF Working Papers 08/197, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Escobar Gamboa, Octavio Romano, 2012. "Foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants and spatial spillovers across Mexico's states," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10605, Paris Dauphine University.

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