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Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence

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Author Info
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Chudozie Okongwu

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Abstract

The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to U.S. levels, despite capital market liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are whether portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these 'emerging markets' and the U.S., and whether there is any scope left for the authorities to sterilize inflows. The conclusion of the study is that the largest single component of the gap in interest rates is expectations of depreciation of the local currencies against the dollar. Key to the analysis is the use of survey data on exchange rate forecasts by market participants. Indicative of integrated financial markets, we also find a big effect of U.S. interest rates on local interest rates and a highly significant degree of capital flow offset to monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5156.

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Date of creation: Jun 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5156

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stijn Claessens & Moon-Whoan Rhee, 1993. "The Effect of Equity Barriers on Foreign Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 4579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kamas, Linda, 1985. "External disturbances and the independence of monetary policy under the crawling peg in Colombia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 313-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "The capital inflows problem: Concepts and issues," MPRA Paper 13902, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1994. "Interest Rates in Latin America," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 98, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Menzie Chinn and Jeffrey Frankel., 1993. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-009, University of California at Berkeley.
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  7. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Capital flows and monetary policy in East Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "The Balance of Payments Offset to Monetary Policy: Monetarist, Portfolio Balance, and Keynesian Estimates for Mexico and Venezuela," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 467-81, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael P. Dooley & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?," NBER Working Papers 4792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler & Robert Brandon Kahn, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Vittorio Grilli, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 95/31, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1993. "Portfolio investment flows to emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1117, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 136-44, June.
    Other versions:
  21. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Celasun, Oya & Denizer, Cevdet & Dong He, 1999. "Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2141, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Remberto Rhenals Monterroso & Alejandro Torres García, 2007. "Volatilidad de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo: evidencia para América Latina, 1970-2002," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 67, pages 9-42, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
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