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Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?

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Author Info
Michael P. Dooley
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias
Kenneth M. Kletzer

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Abstract

This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4792.

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Date of creation: Jul 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4792

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F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard D. Haas & Steven A. Symansky & Michael P. Dooley & D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Debt Reduction and Economic Activity," IMF Occasional Papers 68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1992. "Burden-sharing among official and private creditors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 943, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cohen Daniel, 1992. "Debt crisis (the) : a post mortem," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9204, CEPREMAP.
  4. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff & Afonso S. Bevilaqua, 1992. "Official Creditor Seniority and Burden-Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 195-234. [Downloadable!]
  5. Daniel Cohen, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Postmortem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 65-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Price of LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1996. "Capital flows & current account deficits in the 1990s: why did Latin America & East Asian countries respond differently?," Research Paper 9610, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Chudozie Okongwu, 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," NBER Working Papers 5156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Joseph A. Whitt, Jr., 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  5. Leslie LIPSCHITZ & Timothy LANE & Alex MOURMOURAS, 2006. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant? (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(5-6), pages 202-222, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Roubini, Nouriel, 2002. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," Working Paper Series rwp02-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. William C. Gruben, 1996. "Policy priorities and the Mexican exchange rate crisis," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 19-29. [Downloadable!]
  10. Goopu, Sudarshan, 1996. "The analysis of emerging policy issues in development finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1589, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 511-534, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 5714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Talley, Samuel & Giugale, Marcelo M. & Polastri, Rossana, 1998. "Capital inflow reversals, banking stability, and prudential regulation in Central and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2023, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Thomas D. Willett, . "A Currency Crises Model That Works: A Payments Disequilibrium Approach," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-25, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  17. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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