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Information flows during the asian crisis: evidence from closed-end funds

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  • Eli M Remolona
  • Benjamin H. Cohen

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

A salient feature of the Asian crisis of 1997 was a collapse of stock markets that took place over several months. The dynamics of this collapse raises the question of what information was driving the markets. This paper examines a key aspect of this question: did information flow from the domestic Asian markets to overseas markets, or vice versa? We test for the direction of this information flow by comparing daily returns in several Southeast Asian equity markets with daily returns on US-based closed-end funds that invest in those markets, exploiting the fact that there is no overlap between the trading hours in the two regions. We find that while information flows between local and US markets tended to be roughly evenly balanced before the crisis, US market returns assumed a more important role during the crisis. This is the case both for the level of daily returns and for the volatility of those returns. We also find that fund returns were more closely tied to broad US market returns during the crisis period. This suggests that the shift in causation between the US and Asia reflected a greater role for US market sentiment, rather than for the news that became known during US trading hours.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 97.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:97

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  1. Charles Frederick Kramer & T. Todd Smith, 1995. "Recent Turmoil in Emerging Markets and the Behavior of Country-Fund Discounts," IMF Working Papers 95/68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-95, July.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
  5. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James M. Park, 1998. "Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the Mexican crisis of December 1994: did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 563, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  9. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
  10. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam c & Wright, David J, 2001. "Divergent Expectations and the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 219-38, Summer.
  11. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38.
  12. Gikas Hardouvelis & Rafael La Porta & Thierry A. Wizman, 1994. "What Moves the Discount on Country Equity Funds?," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 345-403 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Moreno, R. & Pasadilla, G. & Remolona, E., 1998. "Asia's Financial Crisis: Lessons and Policy Responses," Papers 98-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  14. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  16. Geert Bekaert & Michael S. Urias, 1995. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 4990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Gaston Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chan, Justin S.P. & Jain, Ravi & Xia, Yihong, 2008. "Market segmentation, liquidity spillover, and closed-end country fund discounts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 377-399, November.
  3. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Transmission of Information across International Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1157-1189.
  5. Jacob Gyntelberg & Alicia Garcia Herrero & Andrea Tesei, 2008. "The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?," BIS Working Papers 261, Bank for International Settlements.

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