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Sudden stops and currency crises

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Author Info

  • Levan Efremidze
  • Samuel M. Schreyer
  • Ozan Sula

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine empirical characteristics of two commonly mentioned expressions of international financial crisis, “sudden stops” and currency crises. Design/methodology/approach – Sudden stop and currency crisis events are identified and empirical regularities among them are analyzed based on the annual data of 25 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2003. Findings – Puzzlingly, these two seemingly close expressions of crises overlap less than 50 percent of the time and sudden stops more frequently precede than follow currency crises. Also the two different sudden stop measures are not strongly correlated with each other. Research limitations/implications – This shows that it can make a great deal of difference what measure is used and suggests that studies in this area should be sure to check the robustness of their results to different measures. Practical implications – The authors think that the proper analysis should focus on how to use these different measures to understand the nature of the crises. Thus, sudden stop and currency crisis measures should be used as complements, rather than substitutes. Social implications – The alarming frequency of the emerging market crises during the last three decades has motivated a large volume of theoretical and empirical literature on the subject. The paper's results advance understanding of these events. Originality/value – A large body of studies on currency crises coexists with a growing literature on sudden stops yet a majority of the studies that investigate either one of these phenomena do not mention the other. The paper adds value by investigating empirical relationships between them.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Financial Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 304-321

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Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:304-321

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Related research

Keywords: Capital movements; Current account adjustment; Financial markets; International business; International economics; International factor movements; International finance; International investments; International trade; Macroeconomics; Open economy;

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References

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  1. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy, . "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
  4. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Research Department Publications 4544, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
  6. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Akiko Terada-hagiwara, 2005. "Explaining the Real Exchange Rate during Sudden Stops and Tranquil Periods," International Finance 0504006, EconWPA.
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  18. Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
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  28. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  29. Levan Efremidze & Akinori Tomohara, 2011. "Have the Implications of Twin Deficits Changed?: Sudden Stops over Decades," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 66-76, February.
  30. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  31. Honig, Adam, 2008. "Do improvements in government quality necessarily reduce the incidence of costly sudden stops?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 360-373, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William R. Clark, 2012. "Measures of financial openness and interdependence," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 58-75, April.
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Uncertainty and Episodes of Extreme Capital Flows in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 0461, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.

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