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Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?

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  • Ortiz, Alberto

    (Boston U)

  • Pablo, Ottonello

    (Ceres)

  • Sturzenegger, Federico

    (Harvard University and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Talvi, Ernesto

    (Ceres)

Abstract

In this paper we ask whether tighter monetary and fiscal policies are the right way to face a sudden stop (a sudden curtailment in capital flows) in a typical emerging economy. We develop exogenous measures of fiscal and monetary policy response and conclude that tighter policies are associated to larger falls in output. The conclusion of the analysis is not so much that macro policies should be relaxed upon a crisis, but that countries should prepare themselves by creating the conditions to be able to act countercyclically upon such events. This entails among other things reducing balance sheet mismatches or strenghtening fiscal results during expansions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp07-057.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-057

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Caselli, Francesco & Feyrer, James, 2005. "The Marginal Product of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 5203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  4. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  5. Fabio Braggion & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jorge Roldos, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a 'Sudden Stop'," NBER Working Papers 13254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Alberto Ortiz & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Estimating Sarb'S Policy Reaction Rule," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 659-680, December.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Scholarly Articles 4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  13. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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Cited by:
  1. U. Michael Bergman & Shakill Hassan, 2008. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case," EPRU Working Paper Series 08-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. José Osler Alzate Mahecha, 2013. "Sudden stops in emerging markets: How to minimize their impact on GDP?," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 010547, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  3. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The cyclicality of monetary and fiscal policy in South Africa since 1994," Working Papers 12/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  4. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2012. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-Insurance against Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 18219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  7. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Andrew Powell & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Multilateral Response to the Global Crisis: Rationale, Modalities, and Feasibility," IDB Publications 6770, Inter-American Development Bank.
  8. Cem Cebi, 2011. "The Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey: An Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model (Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Para ve Maliye P," Working Papers 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.

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