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Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case

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Author Info

  • U. Michael Bergman

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Shakill Hassan

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response to the threat of a currency crisis is restrictive. We demonstrate that this result is primarily due to the uncovered interest parity assumption. Assuming that the exchange rate is a martingale restores the case for expansionary reaction - even with foreign-currency debt in firms' balance sheets. The effect of lower interest rates on output can help restore the value of the currency due to increased money demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 08-01.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:08-01

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Keywords: currency crises; foreign–currency debt; balance sheets; interest parity; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 5905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Vincent Bouvatier, 2004. "Crise de change et politique monétaire optimale dans un modèle de troisième génération : le rôle de la prime de risque," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04089, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  5. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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Cited by:
  1. Shakill Hassan & Sean Smith, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target: Risk, Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 235, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.

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