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Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • García-Fronti, Javier

Abstract

The stylised facts of currency crises in emerging markets include output contraction coming hard on the heels of devaluation, with a prominent role for the adverse balance-sheet effects of liability dollarisation. In the light of the South East Asian experience, we propose an eclectic blend of the supply-side account of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000) with a demand recession triggered by balance sheet effects (Krugman, 1999). This sharpens the dilemma facing the monetary authorities - how to defend the currency without depressing the economy. But, with credible commitment or complementary policy actions, excessive output losses can, in principle, be avoided.

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  • Miller, Marcus & García-Fronti, Javier, 2006. "Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 5905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5905
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    Cited by:

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Shakill Hassan, 2008. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case," EPRU Working Paper Series 08-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
    3. Nakatani, Ryota, 2017. "Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-143.
    4. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply and demand shocks; Financial crises; Contractionary devaluation; Keynesian recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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