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Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model

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Author Info
Manuelli, Rodolfo E
Peck, James

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Abstract

This paper analyzes a stochastic model of exchange rate determination with unrestricted access to capital and currency markets. It is shown that the only restriction imposed by the model on the equilibrium exchange rate is that it satisfy a martingale property. This implies that, for a given real equilibrium allocation (which is optimal), the model can display varying amounts of exchange rate volatility, and that volatility is unrelated to the welfare properties of the equilibrium allocation. Whether or not volatility is "excessive" therefore depends on which equilibrium is chosen as the basis for comparison. Copyright 1990 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 31 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 559-74
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:31:y:1990:i:3:p:559-74

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  1. Alexei Deviatov & Igor Dodonov, 2006. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate disconnect, and the failure of volatility conservation," Working Papers w0079, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
  2. Allen Head & Shouyong Shi, 2002. "A Fundamental Theory of Exchange Rates and Direct Currency Trades," Working Papers shouyong-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. U. Michael Bergman & Shakill Hassan, 2008. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case," EPRU Working Paper Series 08-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing For Sunspots In The Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  6. Irasema Alonso, 2004. "Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 687-706, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: a Theoretical Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2008_16, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  8. Charles Engel, 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," NBER Working Papers 5766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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