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Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model

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  • Manuelli, Rodolfo E
  • Peck, James

Abstract

This paper analyzes a stochastic model of exchange rate determination with unrestricted access to capital and currency markets. It is shown that the only restriction imposed by the model on the equilibrium exchange rate is that it satisfy a martingale property. This implies that, for a given real equilibrium allocation (which is optimal), the model can display varying amounts of exchange rate volatility, and that volatility is unrelated to the welfare properties of the equilibrium allocation. Whether or not volatility is "excessive" therefore depends on which equilibrium is chosen as the basis for comparison. Copyright 1990 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 31 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 559-74

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:31:y:1990:i:3:p:559-74

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Cited by:
  1. Garratt, Rod & Keister, Todd & Qin, Cheng-Zhong & Shell, Karl, 2002. "Equilibrium Prices When the Sunspot Variable Is Continuous," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 11-38, November.
  2. Charles Engel, 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," NBER Working Papers 5766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Barnett, Richard C. & Ho, Mun S., 1996. "Sunspots, currency substitution, and inflationary finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 73-93, August.
  4. M. Salto & T. Pietra, 2013. "Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 501-529, March.
  5. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58.
  7. Irasema Alonso, 2004. "Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 687-706, July.
  8. Allen Head & Shouyong Shi, 2002. "A Fundamental Theory of Exchange Rates and Direct Currency Trades," Working Papers shouyong-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  9. Alexei Deviatov & Igor Dodonov, 2006. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate disconnect, and the failure of volatility conservation," Working Papers w0079, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  10. Carsten K. Nielsen, 2001. "Three Exchange Rate Regimes and a Monetary Union: Determinacy, Currency Crises, and Welfare," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0104, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Edouard Djeutem & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Robustness and Exchange Rate Volatility," Discussion Papers dp12-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  12. Ravikumar, B & Wallace, Neil, 2002. "A benefit of uniform currency," MPRA Paper 22951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. SALTO, Matteo, 1998. "Indeterminacy of equilibrium allocations in monetary open economies," CORE Discussion Papers 1998062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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