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Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New evidence

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  • Benedikt Goderis
  • Vasso P. Ioannidou

Abstract

A recent paper by Kraay (2003) documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper extends Kraay’s work by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Benedikt Goderis & Vasso P. Ioannidou, 2006. "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New evidence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
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    5. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    speculative attacks; currency crises; monetary policy; short-term debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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