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Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks New evidence

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  • Goderis, Benedikt
  • Ioannidou, Vasso P.

Abstract

A recent paper by Kraay (2003) documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper extends Kraay’s work by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 74 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 158-169

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:74:y:2008:i:1:p:158-169

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2002.
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  9. Benedikt Goderis & Vasso P. Ioannidou, 2006. "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New evidence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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