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International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets

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  • Michael Brei
  • Almira Buzaushina

Abstract

The present paper investigates how an emerging market economy is affected when it suddenly faces a higher risk premium on international capital markets. We study this question empirically for five Latin American economies over the period 1994-2007 within a structural panel vector autoregression and analyze theoretically the transmission mechanism using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) of a small open economy. The financial shock is modeled by an unexpected increase in the risk premium of firms’ foreign-currency debt. In response, the adverse shock is amplified by a feedback mechanism between currency depreciation, adverse balance sheet and risk premium effects. The theoretical model is used to study different monetary policy responses. We find that an exchange rate targeting rule that strikes a balance between exchange rate and inflation targeting allows the monetary authority to stabilize inflation and output more effectively than under a pure inflation targeting rule.

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  • Michael Brei & Almira Buzaushina, 2015. "International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2015-11
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    3. Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.
    4. Mauricio Arango & Jaime Eduardo Fonseca & Carlos Andrés Giraldo, 2014. "Trade Credit durante episodios de tensión financiera: ¿Fuente de volatilidad macroeconómica para la región?," Documentos de Discusión FLAR 11306, Fondo Latino Americano de Reservas - FLAR.
    5. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Stona, Filipe & Morais, Igor A.C. & Triches, Divanildo, 2018. "Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-144.
    7. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Markets; Financial Crises; International Capital Markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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