Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The cyclicality of monetary and fiscal policy in South Africa since 1994

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stan du Plessis

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

  • Ben Smit

    ()
    (Bureau of Economic Research, Stellenbosch University)

  • Federico Sturzenegger

    (Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)

Abstract

This paper uses an SVAR approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed to the remarkable stabilisation of the South African economy over this period. The evaluation of the role of fiscal policy in stabilisation has been less favourable and there is little evidence that a countercyclical fiscal stance was a priority over this period. This paper considers these issues in an empirical framework that addresses some of the shortcomings in the literature. Specifically, it constructs a structural model in contrast with the reduced form models typically used in the South African literature, incorporates the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal shocks on the demand side and supply shocks on the other, and avoids controversy over ‘neutral’ base years and the size of fiscal elasticities. The model confirms the consensus on monetary policy, finding it to have been largely countercyclical since 1994. On fiscal policy, this paper finds evidence of pro-cyclicality, especially in the more recent period, though the policy simulations suggest that the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy has had little destabilising impact on real output.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/2007/wp122007/wp-12-2007.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 12/2007.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers43

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Private Bag X1, 7602 Matieland
Phone: 021-8082247
Fax: +27 (0)21-808 2409
Email:
Web page: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Stabilisation policy; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Fiscal policy; Pro-cyclical policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  3. Stan du Plessis & Willem Boshoff, 2007. "A fiscal rule to produce counter-cyclical fiscal policy in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  4. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.
  6. Fedderke, J. W. & de Kadt, R. H. J. & Luiz, J. M., 2001. "Indicators of political liberty, property rights and political instability in South Africa: 1935-97," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-134, March.
  7. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  8. John Thornton, 2007. "On The Cyclicality Of South African Fiscal Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 258-264, 06.
  9. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  10. Sheetal K. Chand, 1977. "Summary Measures of Fiscal Influence (Mesures sommaires de l'incidence budgétaire) (Medidas generales de la influencia fiscal)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 405-449, July.
  11. du Plessis, S.A., 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
  12. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
  13. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 629-641, December.
  14. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 408-433, 04.
  15. Tania Ajam & Janine Aron, 2007. "Fiscal Renaissance in a Democratic South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  16. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  20. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  21. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  22. J Fedderke & P Vaze, 2001. "THE NATURE OF SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE PATTERNS BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, AND THE EXTENT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION DURING THE COURSE OF THE 1990′s," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(3), pages 436-478, 09.
  23. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
  24. Vivek B. Arora & Ashok Bhundia, 2003. "Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/178, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Garry J. Schinasi & Mark Scott Lutz, 1991. "Fiscal Impulse," IMF Working Papers 91/91, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Weeks, John, 1999. "Stuck in Low GEAR? Macroeconomic Policy in South Africa, 1996-98," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 795-811, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Leon du Toit, 2009. "Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 20/2009, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  2. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2013. "A Time-Varying Approach to Analysing Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices in South Africa," Working Papers 201303, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
  4. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
  5. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working papers 2012-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  6. Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo & Lucie Gadenne, 2009. "Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 09/274, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Melt van Schoor).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.