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Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops

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Author Info

  • Guillermo Calvo

    (Columbia University)

  • Alejandro Izquierdo

    (Regional Economic Advisor)

  • Rudy Loo-Kung

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of the optimal stock of international reserves in terms of a statistical model in which reserves affect both the probability of a sudden stop –as well as associated output costs– by reducing the balance-sheet effects of liability dollarization. Observed reserves on the eve of the global financial crisis were–on average–not distant from optimal reserves

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXXV (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-june)
Pages: 1-35

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxxv:y:2013:i:1:p:1-35

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References

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
  10. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & María Soledad Martínez Pería & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Depositor Behavior under Macroeconomic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 585-614, 06.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerencia Técnica-Banco de la República, 2012. "Nivel óptimo y adecuado de reservas internacionales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009871, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2013. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," IMF Working Papers 13/33, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Rossini, Renzo & Quispe, Zenón & Serrano, Enrique, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Interventions in Peru," Working Papers 2013-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  4. Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo, 2013. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," International Finance Discussion Papers 1073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Hernando Vargas Herrera & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 757, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Zhichao Zhang & Frankie Chau & Li Xie, 2013. "Accumulation of large foreign reserves in China: a behavioural perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 85-108, March.
  7. Rangan Gupta & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Won Joong Kim & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne, 2013. "Forecasting China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Using Dynamic Model Averaging: The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Financial Stress and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 201338, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Guillermo Calvo, 2013. "Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises: Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  9. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo velandia & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar Villegas, 2013. "The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate," Borradores de Economia 767, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. James P. Gander, 2013. "A Simple Dynamic-Control Macro Model to Examine the Behavior of International Reserves for Selected Economies," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2013_11, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  11. Gerencia Técnica, 2012. "Nivel óptimo y adecuado de reservas internacionales," Borradores de Economia 727, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2013. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises- Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 39-64, November.

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