IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v72y2021icp16-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International reserves and economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Sula, Ozan
  • Oguzoglu, Umut

Abstract

The channels through which reserves affect economic performance have been studied extensively; however, an empirical evaluation of the actual performance of reserve holders is missing from the literature. This paper’s goal is to fill this gap. We investigate the relationship between the level of international reserves and economic growth for a sample of 120 developed and developing nations for the period 1981–2010. Using dynamic panel data techniques and controlling for a wide range of covariates, we find that international reserves have a positive effect on growth. Furthermore, the effect weakens as the opportunity cost of holding reserves increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Sula, Ozan & Oguzoglu, Umut, 2021. "International reserves and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 16-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:16-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056020302501
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Bussière, Matthieu & Cheng, Gong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Lisack, Noëmie, 2015. "For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 127-145.
    5. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2012. "The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From ‘fear of floating’ to the ‘fear of losing international reserves’?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 250-269.
    7. Johannes Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds & Lars Søndergaard, 2007. "Reserve accumulation - objective or by-product?," Occasional Paper Series 73, European Central Bank.
    8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    9. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    10. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    11. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    13. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    14. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2006. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 6, pages 171-206, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Mr. M. Nowak & Mr. Ketil Hviding & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2004/189, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Edwards, Sebastian, 1985. "On the interest-rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: Some evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 287-295, June.
    18. Mr. Ferhan Salman & Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Ricardo Llaudes, 2010. "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/237, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    20. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November.
    21. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    22. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    23. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
    24. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    25. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    27. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    28. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2013. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-j.
    29. T. J. Courchene & G. M. Youssef, 1967. "The Demand for International Reserves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 404-404.
    30. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    31. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    34. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    35. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    36. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    37. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    38. J. M. Landell-Mills, 1989. "The Demand for International Reserves and Their Opportunity Cost," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 708-732, September.
    39. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    40. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    41. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    42. de Beaufort Wijnholds, Johannes Onno & Søndergaard, Lars, 2007. "Reserve accumulation: objective or by-product?," Occasional Paper Series 73, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    2. Chokri Zehri, 2023. "Macro‐management policies: A supporting role to company' capital expenditure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3846-3864, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    2. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2009. "What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 861-877, September.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    4. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    8. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    9. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    10. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Dilution of Opportunity Cost Effect on the Demand for International Reserves in the High Reserve Era," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 151-171.
    11. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2022. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 825-851, November.
    12. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Woon Gyu Choi & Maria Strömqvist, 2007. "Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2007/151, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gründler, Klaus, 2015. "The vanishing effect of finance on growth," Discussion Paper Series 133, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    14. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Demir, FIrat & Dahi, Omar S., 2011. "Asymmetric effects of financial development on South-South and South-North trade: Panel data evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 139-149, January.
    16. Vu, Khuong M & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Backwardness advantage and economic growth in the information age: A cross-country empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Samba Michel Cyrille, 2015. "International Reserves Holdings in the CEMAC Area: Adequacy and Motives," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(4), pages 415-427, December.
    18. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    19. Simon Sturn & Klara Zwickl, 2016. "A reassessment of intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1467-1480, June.
    20. Hong Zhuang & Haiyan Yin & Miao Wang & Jiawen Yang, 2019. "Bank Efficiency and Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 661-689, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:16-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.