This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Dreher, Axel
Vaubel, Roland

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

By combining expansionary open-market operations with sales of foreign exchange, the central bank can expand the monetary base without depreciating the exchange rate. Thus, if there is a monetary political business cycle, sales of foreign exchange are especially likely before elections. Our panel data analysis for up to 149 countries in 1975-2001 supports this hypothesis. Foreign exchange reserves relative to trend GDP depend negatively on the pre-election index. The relationship is significant and robust irrespective of the type of electoral variable, our choice of control variables and the splitting of the sample period. However, it is not significant in a narrow sample of high income countries. Foreign exchange reserves also drop relative to the domestic component of the monetary base prior to elections while the overall monetary stimulus is positive.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-4V88FJ4-4/2/7931c5b9c57aa399f91f06930f7e5c5b
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 755-775
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:5:p:755-775

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange interventions Political business cycles;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alesina, Alberto F & Cohen, Gerald D & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2005. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Philip Lane & Dominic Burke, 2001. "The Empirics of Foreign Reserves," CEG Working Papers 20013, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Soh, Byung Hee, 1986. "Political Business Cycles in Industrialized Democratic Countries," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 31-46.
  8. Grimes, Arthur, 1993. "International Reserves under Floating Exchanges Rates: Two Paradoxes Explained," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(207), pages 411-15, December.
  9. Carlsen, Fredrik, 1997. " Opinion Polls and Political Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence for the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 387-406, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bahmani-Oskooee, M & Brown, F, 2002. "Demand for International Reserves: A Review Article," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-26, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. " Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: what's going on?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1985. "On the interest-rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: Some evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 287-295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Williamson, John, 1976. " Exchange-Rate Flexibility and Reserve Use," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 327-39.
  20. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Axel Dreher, 2004. "The Influence of IMF Programs on the Re-election of Debtor Governments," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-76, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2007. "Does Terror Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-156, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," Working Papers 124, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over 80% of the top 1000 economists are registered on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.