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Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Potrafke, Niklas

Abstract

This paper examines whether government ideology has influenced monetary policy in OECD countries. We use quarterly data in the 1980.1–2005.4 period and exclude EMU countries. Our Taylor-rule specification focuses on the interactions of a new time-variant index of central bank independence with government ideology. The results show that leftist governments have somewhat lower short-term nominal interest rates than rightwing governments when central bank independence is low. In contrast, short-term nominal interest rates are higher under leftist governments when central bank independence is high. The effect is more pronounced when exchange rates are flexible. Our findings are compatible with the view that leftist governments, in an attempt to deflect blame of their traditional constituencies, have pushed market-oriented policies by delegating monetary policy to conservative central bankers.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 1126-1139

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:5:p:1126-1139

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Government ideology; Partisan politics; Central bank independence; Panel data;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 0183, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," Working Papers IES 2011/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2011.
  3. Belke, Ansgar & Schnabl, Gunther, 2010. "Finanzkrise, globale Liquidität und makroökonomischer Exit," Working Papers 92, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  4. Osterloh, Steffen & Heinemann, Friedrich & Kalb, Alexander, 2013. "Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80043, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Heinemann, Friedrich & Osterloh, Steffen & Kalb, Alexander, 2014. "Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-127.
  6. Jens Klose, 2012. "Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-295, September.
  7. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "A More Effective Euro Area Monetary Policy than OMTs – Gold-Backed Sovereign Debt," ROME Working Papers 201303, ROME Network.
  8. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zum Einfluss von Regierungsideologie und Zentralbankunabhängigkeit auf die Geldpolitik," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(11), pages 25-26, 06.
  9. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 892-905.
  10. Efthyvoulou, Georgios, 2011. "Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 638-662.
  11. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union – Comments on a Roadmap," ROME Working Papers 201304, ROME Network.
  12. Ansgar H. Belke, 2013. "Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union—Comments on a Roadmap," Politics and Governance, Librello publishing house, vol. 1(1), pages 48-65.
  13. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Maya Schmaljohann, 2013. "The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology," Kiel Working Papers 1817, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 105-124, July.

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