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Money, politics and the post-war business cycle

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  • Jon Faust
  • John Irons

Abstract

While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 572.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:572

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles ; Monetary policy ; Money;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 22780, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2010.
  2. Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat & Manzano, Carolina, 2013. "Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank," Working Papers 2072/211881, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  3. Pettersson-Lidbom , Per, 2003. "Do Parties Matter for Fiscal Policy Choices? A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," Research Papers in Economics 2003:15, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  4. Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951-2006," MPRA Paper 23751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
  6. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2000. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Working Paper 0016, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  8. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2008. "The macroeconomic effect of external pressures on monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 944, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Monetary regime switches and unstable objectives," International Finance Discussion Papers 1036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Blomberg, S. Brock, 2000. "Modeling political change with a regime-switching model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 739-762, November.
  11. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2000. "Political Cycles and the Stock Market," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt00n6f3ph, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  12. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2005. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2006. "Does Opportunism Pay Off? A Study of Vote Functions and Policy Preferences," Emory Economics 0604, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).

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