Political Models of the Business Cycle Should Be Revived
AbstractPolitical models of the business cycle have typically been ignored because they appear inconsistent with rational behavior and because empirical evidence is inconclusive. This paper addresses the second issue, demonstrating for U.S. real GNP, unemployment, and inflation that electoral cycles (persistent patterns across electoral terms) are significant, but apparently only for Republican incumbents, and that partisan cycles (persistent differences between parties) are also significant. These findings are consistent with the conjecture that a minority party is more constrained by electoral concerns, whereas a majority party is freer to pursue partisan objectives. Copyright 1990 by Oxford University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.
Volume (Year): 28 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://ei.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013.
"The Size and Scope of Government in the US States: Does Party Ideology Matter?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
4246, CESifo Group Munich.
- Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "The size and scope of government in the US states: does party ideology matter?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 687-714, August.
- Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "The size and scope of government in the US states:Does party ideology matter?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 162, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Bjørnskov, Christian & Potrafke, Niklas, 2013. "The size and scope of government in the US states: Does party ideology matter?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20275, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Jon Faust & John Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2009.
"Political ideology and economic freedom across Canadian provinces,"
Working Papers CEB
09-054.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Christian Bj�rnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political Ideology and Economic Freedom Across Canadian Provinces," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 143-166.
- Bjørnskov, Christian & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Political ideology and economic freedom across Canadian provinces," Munich Reprints in Economics 20277, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
- Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Loizides, Ioannis & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 2004. "Fiscal policy and political business cycles in the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 125-152, March.
- Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2003.
"Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle,"
0319, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2005. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 752-767, April.
- Anderson, Hamish D. & Malone, Christopher B. & Marshall, Ben R., 2008. "Investment returns under right- and left-wing governments in Australasia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 252-267, June.
- J Stephen Ferris & Soo-Bin Park & Stanley L. Winer, 2006. "Political Competition and Convergence to Fundamentals: With Application to the Political Business Cycle and the Size of Government," CESifo Working Paper Series 1646, CESifo Group Munich.
- Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. & Prodromidis, Kyprianos P. & Serletis, Apostolos, 1998. "Electoral and Partisan Cycle Regularities: A Cointegration Test," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 119-140, April.
- Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.
- Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
- Ferris, J. Stephen & Park, Soo-Bin & Winer, Stanley L., 2008.
"Studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons,"
POLIS Working Papers
111, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- J. Ferris & Soo-Bin Park & Stanley Winer, 2008. "Studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 369-401, October.
- Ferris, J.S. & Park, S. & Winer, S.L., 2007. "Studying the Role of Political Competition in the Evolution of Government Size Over Long Horizons," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0774, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gartner, Manfred, 1996. "Political business cycles when real activity is persistent," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 679-692.
- Chappell, Henry Jr. & Havrilesky, Thomas M. & McGregor, Rob Roy, 1995. "Policymakers, institutions, and central bank decisions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 113-136, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.