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Societal Preferences, Partisan Agents, and Monetary Policy Outcomes

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  • Bearce, David H.

Abstract

If different producer groups have divergent interests concerning macroeconomic policies, how do societal preferences translate into state policy outcomes? I develop and test a party-as-agent framework for understanding the importance of societal preferences with regard to monetary policy under capital mobility. Following the principal-agent model, political parties function as agents for different societal principals. Rightist parties tend to represent internationally oriented business groups with preferences for monetary convergence, while leftist parties do the same for domestically oriented groups preferring monetary autonomy under capital mobility. I present statistical evidence showing that OECD leftist governments have been associated with more monetary autonomy and currency variability than their rightist counterparts, even after controlling for basic economic indicators such as inflation. The statistical evidence also shows that societal group size tends not to explain either autonomous monetary policy choices or exchangerate stability. Thus even large and wealthy societal groups may be unable to obtain their preferred policy outcome when their respective partisan agents do not hold government power.

Suggested Citation

  • Bearce, David H., 2003. "Societal Preferences, Partisan Agents, and Monetary Policy Outcomes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 373-410, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:57:y:2003:i:02:p:373-410_57
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    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," Staff Working Papers 23-36, Bank of Canada.
    2. Apaydin, Fulya, 2012. "Partisan Preferences and Skill Formation Policies: New Evidence from Turkey and Argentina," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1522-1533.
    3. Potrafke, Niklas, 2017. "Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 712-750.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    5. Jacob M. Meyer & Nicholas R. Jenkins, 2019. "Interest Groups, Policy Responses to Global Shocks, and the Relative Likelihood of Currency Crashes Versus Banking Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-56, June.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0094 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Puspa Delima Amri & Florence Bouvet, 2024. "Do voters in developing and transitional democracies care about income inequality? the role of media freedom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 245-274, March.
    9. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.
    10. Tingley, Dustin, 2010. "Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 40-49, February.
    11. Kim, Iljoong & Kim, Inbae, 2011. "A Macro-economic Consequence of the Central Bank's Reserve Fund: A Political-economic Perspective," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(2), pages 143-163, December.
    12. Kim, Iljoong & Kim, Inbae, 2008. "Interest group pressure explanations for the yen-dollar exchange rate movements: Focusing on the 1980s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 364-382, September.

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