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Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries

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  • Ansgar Belke

    () (Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany)

  • Niklas Potrafke

    () (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

Abstract

This paper examines whether government ideology has influenced monetary policy in OECD countries. We use quarterly data in the 1980.1-2005.4 period and exclude EMU countries. Our Taylor-rule specification focuses on the interactions of a new time-variant index of central bank independence with government ideology. The results show that leftist governments have somewhat lower short-term nominal interest rates than rightwing governments when central bank independence is low. In contrast, short-term nominal interest rates are higher under leftist governments when central bank independence is high. The effect is more pronounced when exchange rates are flexible. Our findings are compatible with the view that leftist governments, in an attempt to deflect blame of their traditional constituencies, have pushed market-oriented policies by delegating monetary policy to conservative central bankers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2011-48.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 21 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1148

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Keywords: monetary policy; Taylor rule; government ideology; partisan politics; central bank independence; panel data;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 0183, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2011. "How are Inflation Targets Set?," Working Papers 2011/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Belke, Ansgar & Schnabl, Gunther, 2010. "Finanzkrise, globale Liquidität und makroökonomischer Exit," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 184, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Jens Klose, 2011. "Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function," Ruhr Economic Papers 0286, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2008. "Political Cycles in a Small Open Economy and the Effect of Economic Integration: Evidence from Cyprus," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0808, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  6. Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 105-124, July.
  7. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zum Einfluss von Regierungsideologie und Zentralbankunabhängigkeit auf die Geldpolitik," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(11), pages 25-26, 06.
  8. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Maya Schmaljohann, 2013. "The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology," Kiel Working Papers 1817, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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