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Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set

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Author Info
Axel Dreher () (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich)
Jan-Egbert Sturm () (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich)
Jakob de Haan () (University of Groningen, The Netherlands and CESifo, Munich, Germany,)

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Abstract

This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related to the share of the term in office elapsed, political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and inflation. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank independence. This is confirmed in models for cross-section inflation in which TOR becomes insignificant once its endogeneity is taken into account.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series Working papers with number 07-167.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-167

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Keywords: central bank governors central bank independence inflation

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E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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  6. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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