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Inflation, Central Bank Independence and the Legal System

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  • Bernd Hayo

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  • Stefan Voigt

    ()

Abstract

We argue that a higher degree of de facto independence of the legal system from the other government branches as well as public trust in the legal system may reduce the average inflation record of countries through a direct and an indirect channel. The direct channel works by affecting potential output, while the indirect channel helps to increase the de facto independence of the central bank. In the empirical section of the paper, we present evidence in favor of both channels in a sample containing both industrial and Third World countries. A model that contains legal trust in addition to de jure central bank independence, checks and balances within government, and openness can explain 60% of the variation in the logarithm of the inflation rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 02-2005.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:02-2005

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Keywords: Judicial Independence; Legal Trust; Central Bank Independence; Inflation;

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References

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  1. Bernd Hayo & Stefan Voigt, 2003. "Explaining de facto judicial independence," Law and Economics 0306001, EconWPA.
  2. Andreas Freytag, 2001. "Does central bank independence reflect monetary commitment properly? Methodical considerations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(217), pages 181-208.
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  7. Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 2001. " Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 3-40, February.
  8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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  10. Sergio Clavijo, . "Central Banking and Macroeconomic Coordination: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 159, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May.
  12. Bernd Hayo & Carsten Hefeker, 2001. "Do We Really Need Central Bank Independence? A Critical Re- examination," Macroeconomics 0103006, EconWPA.
  13. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2001. "Inflation in developing countries: does Central Bank independence matter?," CCSO Working Papers 200101, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  14. Lars P. Feld & Stefan Voigt, 2003. "Economic Growth and Judicial Independence: Cross Country Evidence Using a New Set of Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 906, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Forder, James, 1998. "The case for an independent European central bank: A reassessment of evidence and sources," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-71, February.
  16. Philip Keefer, 2001. "Politics and the Determinants of Banking Crises: the Effects of Political Checks and Balances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 119, Central Bank of Chile.
  17. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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  20. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Voigt, Stefan & Gutmann, Jerg, 2013. "Turning cheap talk into economic growth: On the relationship between property rights and judicial independence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 66-73.
  2. Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Independencia Legal y Efectiva del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú," Working Papers 2007-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Hielscher, Kai & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "The role of political institutions for the effectiveness of central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 286-301.
  4. Mark Mietzner & Dirk Schiereck, 2011. "Staatsfonds als Ankerinvestoren: Eine Note zum Einstieg von Aabar bei Daimler," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 92-100, 02.
  5. Berggren, Niclas & Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & Hellström, Jörgen, 2012. "Social trust and central-bank independence," HUI Working Papers 66, HUI Research.
  6. Marc Quintyn, 2009. "Independent agencies: more than a cheap copy of independent central banks?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 267-295, September.

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