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Inflation and Central Bank Independence: Conventional Wisdom Redux

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  • Brumm, Harold J

Abstract

Until recently there existed a broad consensus that an important institution for combating inflation is a central bank insulated from political influence. This conventional wisdom has been challenged by, among others, Campillo and Miron (1997), who present evidence purporting to show that if an inflation regression equation is expanded to include not only their proxy for central bank independence (CBI) but other regressors as well, then the negative correlation between inflation and CBI vanishes. The present paper argues that allegations of the demise of this nexus should not be accepted uncritically. This paper, which reports the results of an analysis of covariance structures, finds a strong negative relationship between inflation and CBI.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 807-19

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:32:y:2000:i:4:p:807-19

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  5. Temple, Jonathan, 1998. "Central bank independence and inflation: good news and bad news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 215-219, November.
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  7. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-52, May.
  8. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  9. Satorra, Albert & Bentler, Peter M., 1990. "Model conditions for asymptotic robustness in the analysis of linear relations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 235-249, December.
  10. Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
  11. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
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  13. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-59, July.
  14. Cukierman, Alex & Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Summers, Lawrence H. & Webb, Steven B., 1993. "Central bank independence, growth, investment, and real rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 95-140, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Francisco F. Vázquez, 2005. "Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 05/75, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set," KOF Working papers 07-167, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Brumm, Harold J., 2006. "The effect of central bank independence on inflation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 189-193, February.
  4. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2004. "Does the dynamic time consistency model of inflation explain cross-country differences in inflations dynamics?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 735-759, September.
  5. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2012. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation : Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," Working Papers 1206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Matthew Doyle & Barry Falk, 2008. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 409-425, 03.
  7. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  8. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.
  9. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Bruno S. Sergi, 2012. "The link between central bank independence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe: are the results sensitive to endogeneity issue omitted dynamics and subjectivity bias?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 611-652, July.
  10. Bernard Laurens & Marco Arnone & Jean-François Segalotto, 2006. "The Measurement of Central Bank Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 06/227, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Posso, Alberto & Tawadros, George B., 2013. "Does greater central bank independence really lead to lower inflation? Evidence from panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 244-247.
  12. Farvaque, Etienne, 2002. "Political determinants of central bank independence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 131-135, September.
  13. Agustin Carstens & Luis I. Jacome H., 2005. "Latin American Central Bank Reform: Progress and Challenges," Macroeconomics 0509022, EconWPA.
  14. Aleksandra A. Maslowska, 2011. "Quest for the Best: How to Measure Central Bank Independence and Show its Relationship with Inflation," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 132-161, August.
  15. Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "A Revisit of the Relation between Central Bank Independence and Inflation," MPRA Paper 30398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Economic Performance," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 123-156, June.
  17. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Latin American Central Bank Reform," IMF Working Papers 05/114, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2007. "Discussion on the Inconsistency of Central Bank Independence Measures," Discussion Papers 21, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  19. Brumm, Harold J., 2011. "Inflation and central bank independence: Two-way causality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 220-222, June.
  20. Agustín Carstens, & Luis I. Jácome, 2005. "The 1990s Institutional Reform of Monetary Policy in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 343, Central Bank of Chile.

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