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Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique

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  • Belke, Ansgar

Abstract

This paper focuses on alternative specifications of partisan political business cycles (Partisan Theory, Rational Partisan Theory and hysteresis-augmented RPT). It elaborates on analogies of the natural rate hypothesis underlying all specifications and the cointegration concept. Accordingly, problems of the specification of hypotheses, estimation and inference in a cointegrating framework with political interventions are treated. Super-exogeneity tests are shown to be equivalent to tests of the Lucas-critique and the RPT. Therefore, the concept of super-exogeneity is transferred to empirical tests of partisan cycles. By this, a new testing framework of partisan cycles is developed and applied to German labour market data. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 104 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (September)
Pages: 225-83

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:3-4:p:225-83

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19274, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Electoral cycles in active labor market policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 181-194, July.
  3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  4. Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Economic Freedom and Government Ideology Across the German States," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-41, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  5. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 22780, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2010.
  6. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2006. "Variable rational partisan cycles and electoral uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 874-886, December.
  7. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: Empirical evidence from 1951-2006," Munich Reprints in Economics 19272, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market � Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Nuscheler, 2011. "The political economy of the German Lander deficits: weak governments meet strong finance ministers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2399-2415.
  10. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2004 an Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 248/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  11. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2003. "Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/03, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

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