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Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?

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Author Info
Axel Dreher (ETH-Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, KOF, ETH Zentrum WEH, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)
Bernhard Herz (University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstrasse 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany)
Volker Karb (University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstrasse 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany)

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Abstract

Though currency and debt crises quite often occur simultaneously, the links between these two types of crises are not well understood. We review how currency and debt crises could be related due to common causes, contagion effects from one crisis to the other, and complementary budget financing aspects. In an empirical analysis based on a panel of 80 countries over the period 1975-2000, we first investigate the determinants of each crisis separately. Then we estimate links between both crises employing instrumental variables techniques. We find that, while there is a negative lagged influence of currency crises on debt crises, currency crises significantly increase the risk of contemporaneous debt crises and vice versa. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.300
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 305-325
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:4:p:305-325

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, . "The Interactions between Debt and Currency Crises – Common Causes or Contagion?," Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert P. Flood & Olivier Jeanne, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2004. "High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-188, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Samir Jahjah & Peter Montiel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2003. "Another Twin Crisis: Currency and Debt Crisis," Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University, vol. 54(3), pages 248-267. [Downloadable!]
  12. Axel Dreher & Lars-H.R. Siemers, 2003. "The Intriguing Nexus Between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions," Development and Comp Systems 0306004, EconWPA, revised 07 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bernhard Herz & Christian Bauer & Volker Karb, 2003. "The Other Twins: Currency and Debt Crises," Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University, vol. 54(3), pages 248-267. [Downloadable!]
  15. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Enrica Detragiache, 1996. "Rational Liquidity Crises in the Sovereign Debt Market: In Search of a Theory," IMF Working Papers 96/38, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Corsetti, G. & Mackowiak, B., 2000. "Nominal Debt and the Dynamics of Currency Crises," Papers 820, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  21. Michael Chui & Prasanna Gui & Andrew G Haldane, . "Sovereign liquidity crises: analytics and implications for public policy," Bank of England working papers 121, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  22. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Boockmann, Bernhard & Dreher, Axel, 2003. "The contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to economic freedom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 633-649, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Axel Dreher, 2002. "Does Globalization Affect Growth?," Development and Comp Systems 0210004, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2003. [Downloadable!]
  27. Alberto Alesina & Alessandro Prati & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy," NBER Working Papers 3135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Gassebner & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jochen O. Mierau, 2007. "Terrorism and Cabinet Duration: An Empirical Analysis," KOF Working papers 07-181, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention And The Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis," International Finance 0505009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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