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Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan

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  • Rasmus Fatum
  • Michael Hutchison

Abstract

Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market is of by far the largest magnitude in the world, despite little or no evidence that it is effective in moving exchange rates. This paper investigates the effectiveness of intervention using recently published Japanese official daily data and an event study methodology. Focusing on daily Japanese and US official intervention operations, we identify separate intervention episodes' and analyze the subsequent effect on the exchange rate. Using the non-parametric sign test and matched-sample test, we find strong evidence that sterilized intervention systemically affects the exchange rate in the short-run (less than one month). This result holds even when intervention is not associated with (simultaneous) interest rate changes, whether or not intervention is secret' (in the sense of no official reports or rumors of intervention reported over the newswires), and against other robustness checks. Large-scale (amounts over $1 billion) intervention, coordinated with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve working in unison, give the highest success rate

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9648.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Publication status: published as Fatum, Rasmus and Michael M. Hutchison. "Is Sterilised Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," Economic Journal 113(487): 390-411, April 2003
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9648

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  1. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  2. William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  4. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1994. "Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 94-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Takatoshi Ito, 2002. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?: The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  11. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, July.
  12. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1992. "Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  13. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August.
  14. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Wesley, Charles E., 1993. "Measuring security price performance using daily NASDAQ returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 73-92, February.
  15. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  16. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
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