Opinion Polls and Political Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence for the United States
AbstractThis paper shows that the 'Frey-Schneider-Schultz hypothesis'--that there is a negative relation between the government's popularity and the government's incentives to engineer political business cycles--is consistent with rational, forward-looking voting provided one makes appropriate assumptions about the incumbent's preferences. The empirical part of the paper presents evidence favorable to the hypothesis using quarterly data on U.S. money growth. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.
Volume (Year): 92 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (September)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332
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- Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2005.
"Foreign Exchange Intervention And The Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis,"
- Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
- Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis ," TWI Research Paper Series 9, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle : A Panel Data Analysis," KOF Working papers 07-159, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Reichenvater, Arno, 2007. "Business Cycles, Political Incentives and the Macroeconomy: Comparison of Models," MPRA Paper 5527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012.
"Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures,"
Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
- Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2010. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union and the Impact of Political Pressures: A dynamic panel regression analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1002, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
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