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Opinion Polls and Political Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence for the United States

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  • Carlsen, Fredrik
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    Abstract

    This paper shows that the 'Frey-Schneider-Schultz hypothesis'--that there is a negative relation between the government's popularity and the government's incentives to engineer political business cycles--is consistent with rational, forward-looking voting provided one makes appropriate assumptions about the incumbent's preferences. The empirical part of the paper presents evidence favorable to the hypothesis using quarterly data on U.S. money growth. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

    Volume (Year): 92 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3-4 (September)
    Pages: 387-406

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:92:y:1997:i:3-4:p:387-406

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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    Cited by:
    1. Reichenvater, Arno, 2007. "Business Cycles, Political Incentives and the Macroeconomy: Comparison of Models," MPRA Paper 5527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention And The Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis," International Finance 0505009, EconWPA.
    3. Richard Boylan, 2008. "Political distortions in state forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 411-427, September.
    4. Linda Veiga & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Intergovernmental fiscal transfers as pork barrel," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 335-353, June.
    5. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.

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