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Vote buying or (political) business (cycles) as usual?

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  • Toke Aidt

    (University of Cambridge and CESifo)

  • Zareh Asatryan

    (ZEW Mannheim and University of Freiburg)

  • Lusine Badalyan

    (University of Bremen and Jacobs University)

  • Friedrich Heinemann

    (ZEW Mannheim and University of Heidelberg)

Abstract

We study the short-run effect of elections on monetary aggregates in a sample of 85 low and middle income democracies (1975-2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard deviation. A similar effect can neither be detected in established OECD democracies nor in other months. The effect is larger in democracies with many poor and uneducated voters, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and in East-Asia and the Pacific. We argue that the election month monetary expansion is related to systemic vote buying which requires significant amounts of cash to be disbursed right before elections. The finely timed increase in M1 is consistent with this; is inconsistent with a monetary cycle aimed at creating an election time boom; and it cannot be, fully, accounted for by alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2015. "Vote buying or (political) business (cycles) as usual?," Working Papers 2015/23, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2015-23
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    2. Anand Murugesan & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2023. "The Puzzling Practice of Paying “Cash for Votes”," CESifo Working Paper Series 10504, CESifo.
    3. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Tricaud, Clemence, 2022. "Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12411, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2017. "Optimal Term Length For An Overconfident Central Banker," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 179-192, March.
    5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Electoral cycles in perceived corruption: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 215-224.
    6. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Nuryartono, Nunung, 2021. "Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    8. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2022. "Political consequences of consumer debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2020. "A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79, March.
    10. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political business cycles; vote buying; monetary economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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