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The Cost of Reserves

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Author Info
Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Ugo Panizza

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Abstract

Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address these drawbacks, we examine the impact of default on growth by looking at quarterly data for emerging economies. We find that, contrary to what is typically assumed, output contractions precede defaults. Moreover, we find that the trough of the contraction coincides with the quarter of default, and that output starts to grow thereafter, indicating that default episode, rather than a further decline, seems to mark the beginning of the economic recovery. This suggests that whatever negative effects a default may have on output, they are driven by its anticipation, independently of whether or not the country ultimately decides to validate it.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number 2006-11.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:2006-11

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Martín González Rozada, 2005. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Business School Working Papers globalfactorsspreads, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Optimal Debt? On the Insurance Value of International Debt Flows to Developing Countries," Business School Working Papers 2006-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 371, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Gianni De Nicoló & Alain Ize & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bodman, Philip M & Crosby, Mark, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: Joe Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 191-207, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?," RES Working Papers 4447, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade," Business School Working Papers 2008-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  13. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Sergio Pernice & Federico Sturzenegger, 2004. "Culture and social resistance to reform: a theory about the endogeneity of public beliefs with an application to the case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 275, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Milan Zavadjil, 2008. "Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?," IMF Working Papers 08/192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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