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Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?

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Author Info
Pablo García
Claudio Soto

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Abstract

We empirically assess the contribution of international reserves vis- à -vis institutional variables in reducing the risk of a currency crisis. We find that the ratio of reserves to short-term debt is robust in explaining international crisis, even after controlling for financial development and political variables. Based on our estimates on crisis probabilities we compute the optimal level of reserves for a set of East Asian economies and for Chile. The results of this exercise turn out to be very sensitive to the data utilized and to the assumptions regarding the cost of a crisis. For our benchmark estimate we conclude that the current stocks of reserves for most of the cases are consistent with an optimal selfinsurance policy under reasonable assumptions regarding the cost of a crisis.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 299.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:299

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeanne, Olivier & Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "The International Lender of Last Resort: How Large is Large Enough?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Steven B. Kamin & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "The contributions of domestic and external factors to Latin American devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Pablo García, 1999. "Demand for Reserves Under International Capital Mobility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 58, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael P. Dooley & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dool03-1, September.
  9. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1999. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 99-23, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  10. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and policy," Working Paper 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International Liquidity Management: Sterilization Policy in Illiquid Financial Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1700, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "A "Vertical" Analysis of Crises and Intervention: Fear of Floating and Ex-ante Problems," NBER Working Papers 8428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  24. Stanley Fischer, 2003. "Globalization and Its Challenges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 1-30, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2004. "Contingent reserves management: an applied framework," Working Papers 05-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," Working Papers id:357, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2007. "The buffer stock model redux? An analysis of the dynamics of foreign reserve accumulation," Working Papers Series wp2007_02.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Roberto Álvarez, 2007. "Export Transitions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 418, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stanley Watt & Saade Chami & Donal McGettigan, 2007. "Jordan's International Reserve Position: Justifiably Strong," IMF Working Papers 07/103, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anubha Dhasmana & Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond, 2008. "Foreign Reserve Adequacy in sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/150, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Working Papers 05/15, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "International Reserves Management and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 12734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Yin-wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2007. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup¡¦s Wardrobe and the Joneses," Working Papers 132007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 423, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2007. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup’s Wardrobe and the Joneses," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  14. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 05/198, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 12718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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